Looking Ahead to 2026: What Alabama Buyers Should Know After a Shifting 2025 Market

If you paid any attention to real estate headlines in 2025, you probably felt the same thing many buyers did, confusion mixed with hesitation. Mortgage rates stayed higher than many hoped, home prices didn’t fall the way people predicted, and first-time buyers in particular were left wondering if buying a home was still realistic.

As we head into 2026, two recent reports, one national and one right here in Alabama, help tell a clearer story of where the market has been and where it may be headed.

First-Time Buyers Felt the Squeeze in 2025

According to a recent article from the National Association of REALTORS® titled “Could More First-Time Buyers Make the Math Work in 2026?”, first-time buyers made up just 21% of home purchases in 2025, a historic low. Even more telling, the average age of a first-time buyer rose to around 40 years old, a big shift from past generations.

The reasons weren’t surprising. Higher mortgage rates, rising home prices, and the everyday costs of life (rent, student loans, childcare) made saving and qualifying harder. Many potential buyers hit pause, waiting for conditions to improve.
(Source: National Association of REALTORS®, January 2026)

But here’s the important part: the article doesn’t suggest demand disappeared. Instead, many buyers were delayed, not gone.

Signs 2026 Could Be More Workable

The NAR article points to several shifts that could make 2026 more approachable for first-time buyers:

Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize closer to the mid-6% range
Housing inventory is improving, giving buyers more choices and leverage
More buyers are using creative strategies like down-payment assistance, rate buy-downs, and alternative loan programs

Builders are also adjusting, offering incentives and focusing more on affordability. While 2026 won’t be a “perfect” market, the math may finally start working for buyers who felt priced out just a year ago.

How Alabama’s Market Adjusted in Fall 2025

Zooming in locally, the Alabama Association of REALTORS® recently published “A Look Back at Fall 2025: How Alabama’s Housing Market Adjusted.” The state’s data tells an encouraging, and more balanced story.

While home sales dipped slightly early in the fall, November 2025 sales were up 3.8% year-over-year, signaling renewed buyer activity. At the same time, home prices continued to rise but began to level out toward the end of the year.

One of the most important shifts? Inventory.
Active listings stayed above 20,000 homes statewide for six consecutive months, the highest level in at least five years. Months of supply increased to nearly five months, pushing Alabama closer to a more balanced market.
(Source: Alabama Association of REALTORS®, January 5, 2026)

For buyers, that means more options and less urgency. For sellers, it means pricing and preparation matter more than ever.

Putting the Big Picture Together

When you line these two reports up, a common theme emerges: the market is adjusting, not crashing.

Nationally, first-time buyers are cautiously re-entering the conversation. Locally, Alabama’s market has shown resilience, with rising inventory helping cool the frenzy of previous years. We’re moving away from extremes and toward something healthier and more predictable.

What This Looks Like in Auburn–Opelika

Here in the Auburn–Opelika area, we’re seeing these same trends play out on a local level. Inventory has improved compared to the ultra-tight markets of the past few years, especially in certain price points and neighborhoods. Buyers have more breathing room, and sellers are adjusting expectations, which is exactly what a healthier market looks like.

Well-priced homes in desirable areas are still moving, but buyers are no longer forced to make rushed decisions or waive every contingency just to compete. For first-time buyers, that breathing room can make all the difference. It allows time to explore financing options, ask questions, and make decisions that feel confident instead of pressured.

The takeaway locally is the same as statewide and national trends suggest: preparation matters. Buyers who plan ahead and sellers who price strategically are the ones seeing the best results.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, especially first-timers, 2026 could be the year planning turns into action. Exploring financing options early, understanding assistance programs, and working with a local professionals who know the market will be key.

For sellers, the days of “list it and they’ll come” are fading. Homes that are priced right, well-prepared, and thoughtfully marketed are the ones that will stand out.

Final Thoughts

No one can promise what the market will do next, but data gives us direction. Both nationally and here in Alabama, the signs point toward a market that’s finding its footing. And for many buyers who felt stuck on the sidelines in 2025, 2026 may finally offer a clearer path forward.

Sources:

National Association of REALTORS® — Could More First-Time Buyers Make the Math Work in 2026?
Alabama Association of REALTORS® — A Look Back at Fall 2025: How Alabama’s Housing Market Adjusted